Russian oil exports experienced a sharp decline in November, falling by 420 thousand barrels per day (kb/d) due to heightened US sanctions, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA) report. This significant drop in exports resulted in a revenue loss of $3.6 billion year-over-year, impacting Moscow's financial stability. The Urals crude prices also took a hit, dropping by $8.2 per barrel to $43.52/bbl, the lowest level since the Russia-Ukraine conflict began in February 2022. One barrel is approximately 159 litres. The global oil supply chain faced a cumulative decline of 610 kb/d in November, with OPEC accounting for over 75% of the overall reduction, primarily due to supply disruptions in Russia and Venezuela. Despite these challenges, the IEA predicts a 3 mb/d growth in global oil supply by 2025 and an additional 2.4 mb/d by 2026. On the demand side, world oil demand is expected to rise by 830 kb/d in 2025, driven by improved macroeconomic conditions. The report highlights that gasoil and jet/kerosene will contribute significantly to demand growth this year, while fuel oil continues to lose market share due to natural gas and solar power generation.
