Japan's snap election sees Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi take a risky bet
With early voting already underway, Japan's snap election is shaping up to be a pivotal moment in the country's political landscape. As of a week ago, nearly 4.6 million people had cast their ballots, a 2.5% decrease from the previous election in 2024, attributed to heavy snowfall in the northern and western regions. Despite the weather, observers believe Takaichi's personal popularity could significantly impact the LDP's performance.
An admirer of former UK Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, Takaichi has long aspired to become Japan's 'Iron Lady'. As a known ally of the late former PM Shinzo Abe, she advocates for strong defense and nationalist policies. However, her traditional views on gender and family have not deterred young voters aged 18 to 30, who have shown strong support for her.
Polls indicate that approval ratings for her government have consistently remained above 70% since her October inauguration. Her social media presence is impressive, with 2.6 million followers on X, and her campaign video has been streamed over 100 million times in just 10 days. The phenomenon has even given rise to 'sanakatsu', a fashion trend centered around her, with her black leather tote bag selling out and her pink pen from her first press conference going viral.
Sociologist Yuiko Fujita from Tokyo University attributes this enthusiasm to the traditional dominance of older men in Japanese politics. She suggests that the fact that the prime minister is a woman with a different background creates a sense of change and excitement among the public.
However, some doubt whether her popularity will translate into votes. Political science professor Koichi Nakano from Sophia University points out that this is a parliamentary election, and the LDP's candidates are mostly men tainted by past scandals. Since 2023, the LDP has been embroiled in a fundraising scandal, leading to the resignation of four cabinet ministers and a corruption investigation.
The snap election poses a challenge for Takaichi as her party now faces a more unified opposition. The LDP's former coalition partner, Komeito, has joined forces with the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, forming the largest opposition bloc in the Lower House. Additionally, the LDP must address concerns about its spending-heavy measures and their potential impact on Japan's financial stability.
Masahiko Takeda, a senior fellow focusing on Asia at the Australian National University, argues that the government's policy package may provide short-term relief but fails to address the underlying issues of weak productivity and stagnant real wages. Furthermore, Takaichi's foreign and security policies have drawn criticism, particularly her antagonization of China, which has strained Japan's relationship with its largest trading partner.
Takaichi's suggestion that Japan could respond with its self-defense force if China attacked Taiwan has angered Beijing, plunging the already tense relationship to its lowest point in over a decade. In contrast, she has pursued closer ties with US President Donald Trump, seeking more stability in Japan's relationship with its closest ally.
Trump's endorsement of Takaichi is a rare move for a US leader, adding another layer of complexity to the election dynamics.
